Friday, October 23, 2009

Hill and Blair are the stories of the preseason

DuJuan Blair is a beast. George Hill is a point guard. If Spurs fans take anything away from this year’s preseason, these two stories were the most prominent throughout the exhibition season.
Sure, there were other things to glean from this year’s games (if you had the opportunity to watch them), though most were simple reaffirmations of what we already knew (Tony Parker is really good) or had too small a sample size (can we take the bubble wrap off of Manu Ginobili) to draw an educated conclusion.

Not since 2003 have the Spurs had two young players with such exciting, unknown upside that were also ready to contribute heavily in the Spurs regular season rotation. Then the Spurs counted on a rookie Ginobili and a still wet behind the ears Parker as key cogs in a championship run.

This preseason served as an extention of impressive summer performances for Blair and Hill. Last year’s unheralded draft pick from IUPUI cemented his role as back up point guard and defensive ace off the bench while Blair has already endeared himself as a fan favorite.

Spurs fans (over) reaction to Blair’s performances have pegged him as everything from the Spurs power forward of the future to the second coming of Charles Barkley. While I must admit to drinking the Blair Kool-Aid I would warn others not to become drunk off it.

For all of his positives he does have limitations “and that is before delving into any potential knee issues” that will likely keep him as merely a valuable reserve. Blair is a grossly undersized power forward who has great strength and long arms but is not much of a leaper. As such finding suitable matchups for him on defense will be difficult against elite teams with huge frontlines like the Lakers or Blazers. While he can muscle with the best, ultimately skilled big men can simply shoot right over the top of him and in help defense he’s not going to be helpful in protecting the rim. He must learn to read opponents and draw charges to be successful, and even then his minutes against certain matchups must be monitored.

Offensively he will have trouble getting his shot over taller defenders, even after establishing great position, as evident by the number of shots he’s had blocked or altered (of course, it doesn’t hurt that he always gets the ball right back and puts it in anyways). Right now his pet move is sealing his defender on one side of the rim and laying it in on the other, using the rim as protection from the shot blocker. While he’s more physical than Glenn Davis, ultimately like Big Baby, Blair will have to develop his mid range jumper to be a consistent offensive threat.

All that being said, Blair is a beast. We’ve seen him flip 7-foot future draft busts over his back, nearly rip players’ arms out of socket on several rebounds and put up staggering numbers in limited time so far.

There have been plenty of undersized power forwards (see: Diogu, Ike) who produce numbers whose size precludes coaches from giving meaningful minutes but Blair, early in his Spurs career, seems like the type of player who, matchups be damned, you put on the floor because his positives will outweigh his negatives.

But as exciting as Blair is, perhaps the more relevant story for this season is the rapid development of George Hill. Last year’s first round draft pick provided two thing the Spurs badly needed last year—athleticism and defense—but could not fulfill his duties as a backup point guard well enough to remain on the floor.

Sure, there were glimpses of potential. Like the multiple 20-point games he put up with Tony Parker out. Hill could finish and draw fouls thanks to his athleticism and long arms but his dribble game lacked any elusiveness to it. All of his drives were straight lines where he was simply able to get a first step on the defender. At the end of the season I was pleased with Hill as a backup point guard but pegged his ceiling as an Antonio Daniels type player with better defense, which is great for a late first round draft pick.

But that type of player isn’t untouchable in my mind, and in the offseason I felt like Hill shouldn’t’ be either. My line of thinking was that if you can get a starter who can carry major minutes in exchange for a player who would have trouble finding meaningful time behind Tony Parker then do it.

Oh, what wonders one summer with Chip Engelland can do. It may be a small sample size, but judging by the blistering shooting percentages, George Hill can shoot. From deep. Especially from the corner. Now a lot of attention will be paid to his development as a point guard. And rightfully so, Hill finally looks comfortable there. But the most important development for him, so far as his future with the Spurs is concerned, is his jump shot.

You see, if Hill is to carve out more than cameo appearances in meaningful games it will have to be as more than a backup point guard because there’s just n o way you’re limiting Tony Parker’s minutes come Spring and Summer. So if Hill is going to be an impact as a Spurs player he needs to be able to play beside Parker rather than replacing him. For years that only prerequisite for that, at least offensively, is the corner three.

If Hill can maintain a consistent outside shot it’s huge. It means he can actually cover the Spurs two biggest weaknesses (perimeter defense and athleticism) for meaningful stretches. It also means that he has a future here past his rookie contract.

No comments:

Post a Comment